Forex News

Sterling dips vs dollar, focus shifts to Bernanke

28 August, 2012 - Reuters
  • Sterling trades lower vs dollar, tracks EUR/USD
  • Strong technical resistance at $1.5912
  • Investors focused on Jackson Hole later in week

By Nia Williams

LONDON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Sterling eased against the dollar on Tuesday, tracking a dip in euro/dollar as investors trimmed long positions in perceived riskier currencies, and looked set to be subdued in the run up to a meeting of central bankers at the end of the week.

With no UK data scheduled, analysts said sterling would take direction from moves in the euro. Many market players were expecting the single currency to fade lower after rallying strongly last week on speculation policymakers were readying for action in September to tackle the euro zone debt crisis.

"Cable (sterling/dollar) is going to go with euro/dollar which I suspect will grind lower, just because the move higher in past days was perhaps overdone," said Paul Robinson, head of European FX research at Barclays.

Sterling dipped 0.1 percent to $1.5777, retreating further from last week's three-month high of $1.5912.

Technical analysts highlighted strong resistance around $1.5910, the 61.8 percent retracement of the late April to early June fall from above $1.63 to around $1.5270.

The main focus for investors will be Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at an annual informal meeting of central bank chiefs at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Any hint the Fed is considering another round of quantitative easing could lift riskier currencies, including sterling, against the safe haven dollar.

Market players were also looking ahead to Bank of England and European Central Bank policy meetings on Sept. 6. While the BoE is expected to keep interest rates and its quantitative easing total unchanged, many investors are anticipating action from the ECB to help curb Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.

Barclays' Robinson said if the ECB does deliver, sterling could retest $1.59, but any strength may be short-lived.

"The UK economy is significantly weaker than the U.S. economy and over the next few months I think that will dominate," he said.

A second reading of UK second quarter GDP on Friday showed the recession was not quite a deep as initially estimated but the economy still contracted by 0.5 percent.

Sterling was close to flat against the euro at 79.13 pence, not far off last week's peak of 79.33 pence. Lloyds analysts said the single currency could struggle to break above that level.

"A more positive outlook for the euro zone at this stage still seems more likely to push sterling/dollar up than euro/sterling, at least until there is evidence of improvement in the euro zone economy," they said in a note.

(Editing by Chris Pizzey in London)

Copyright Thomson Reuters 2012. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

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