Daily FX Commentary

11 January 2017 - Investors wait nervously on Trumps Press Conference later today

By Philip Anastacio

United States Dollar

The Bureau of Labour Statistics report yesterday showed that employment openings increased in the USA. The previous figure was 5.45 million in October and in November this number had increased to 5.52 million. The report highlighted that in the manufacturing and retail sectors, job openings was almost unchanged. The accommodation, government and food services sectors provided more openings. The only bad news was that openings shrunk in the skilled sectors such as education, health services and construction. The results are in tandem with December’s employment figures which showed payrolls are rising. As the number of available qualified workers drops, this factor will continue to elevate the pickup in wages. The US dollar yesterday had a mixed day against the Euro and Sterling. During trading, the greenback lost strength against the EUR but managed to claw back by the end of the day. EUR/USD started at 1.0587, climbed up to a high of 1.0619 and finished the day at 1.0552. Part of yesterday’s US Dollar weakness was perceived as a sign that investors are somewhat nervous ahead of Trumps press conference later today at 4pm.

 

Cable was on the rise for most of yesterday due to the effect of Theresa May’s weekend comments starting to fade, a lift U.K retail sales figures blamed on a last minute rush to the tills at Christmas by the U.K citizens and investor nerves ahead of Trumps speech. Cable started at 1.2147, dropped to 1.2119 as the JOLTS data was released, to end on a high of 1.2187. Today’s U.K manufacturing production month on month data is due at 9.30am along with the Goods Trade balance. Forecasters are expecting manufacturing to rise to 0.6% and a goods trade balance of -11.2 billion. Bank of England’s Governor Carney will also be testifying to the U.K Parliaments Treasury Committee at 2:15pm. Governor Mark Carney will be questioned on his views and may hint about his future plans to possibly move away from the current easing platform.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD1.2110 to 1.2230

Euro

Economic data from the Euro block came in the form of French industrial production month on month. Despite this economic data not being seen as a top tier economic event, it did show a real positive that can’t be ignored. Market forecasters had expected only a slight increase of 0.5%, however data showed an uptick to 2.2%. Over the last few years, French industrial production figures have been mainly below 0% but yesterday’s 2.2%, is the highest since June 2013. Since the start of this week, the Euro has had the upper hand against Sterling, however the momentum was reversed half way through yesterday’s European trading session. The GBP/EUR rate started at 1.1473, dropped to 1.1426 as the French economic data was released and ended on a high of 1.1545.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.1405 to 1.1570

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars

All economic data for the AUD this week has now been released. Yesterday’s retail sales month on month figure showed a slight drop to 0.2% against a previous 0.5%. Commodity prices were in the spotlight yesterday as iron ore and coal rallied upwards. Chinese producer prices rose to its highest in the last 5 years and consumer inflation was steady at 2.1%. All welcomed bits news for the AUD and NZD currencies. The only economic data now will come from New Zealand in the early hours of Thursday, the ANZ commodity prices month on month.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6405 to 1.6550

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.7277 to 1.7475

Data Releases

AUD: No data

EUR: No data

GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m, Goods trade balance, NIESR GDP Estimate and BOE Governor Carney Testifies

NZD: No Data

USD: Crude Oil Inventories and President-Elect Trump’s Press Conference

 

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